32 Comments
Jan 11, 2022Liked by BowTied Bull

As BTB mentions, this article is OVERSIMPLIFIED. Two more ideas come to mind which I think should be shared w/ readers to keep them sane:

1. Lower wages are caused by globalization, and to a smaller degree women entering the workforce, NOT money printing. Basic supply & demand dictates that when labor supply is increased many fold w/o increased demand that wages are going to go down. It's not the government's fault because of money printing if you're broke.

2. Most housing & education cost inflation is due to gov't backed lending, not money printing. Gov't backing these loans and aiming to make them available to anyone has greatly increased the demand for these products while not changing the supply. In this situation people can now buy their houses for much more than they otherwise could have, and pay much more for education than they could without these loans. Sellers are happy to accept the higher prices.

All this to say, the problems with money printing are real but it's not to blame for everything. Lower wages are a natural consequence of globalization and the only thing people can do to help themselves is make themselves more valuable in the labor market or create their own business. Similarly, high housing and education costs is caused by misguided liberal ideals for everyone to own their own house and be educated - good in theory but comes with very painful unintended consequences.

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There is no Illuminati but there is a jungle. #2035

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Jan 12, 2022Liked by BowTied Bull

Dollar is created from debt. If debt is paid off, dollar will go extinct. This won't happen unless another kind of money come into existence. Hence, debt will only increase until everything collapses

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Thanks for the article BTB! Somehow I think 2nd and 3rd world countries will get their economies wrecked more than the US. This is probably a moment where the US military will have to make a move so that the dollar keeps it's value in relation to other currencies. I have a feeling that the game is rigged world-wide and somehow, even with the 30T debt, US economy will still come out of this game on top compared to the other countries.

That's just my two cents on the matter!

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purely from a risk-reward perspective:

- USTT as "risk-free" loss so the expected value is *always* negative

- BTC might not be able to make it, but it might. The longer it exists the better chance that it will survive, the expected value is unknown

if ppl are rational, they should choose something possible to make it (an extreme is degen aping into obviously risky ohm forks last quarter), rather than something boring and guaranteed losses

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Great posts! Thank you!

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what a frikin article... and that quote at the end!!

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There is no timestamp for the collapse. We've been obsessing about collapses throughout history.

But I do like this paraphrased quote from hemingway : how did you go bankrupt? Slowly, then suddenly.

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Love this. I have also heard this is what happened in Europe before American revolution. Banks grew. Got too big. And people went to America. If you have a book on that, would love to know. History repeats itself

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Solid write up and easily understood.

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founding

I agree with the ideas. I'd like to push a little on predictions and hypotheses: when does the house of cards fall down? Do you think there are certain gov't actions, certain % or amount of money printed, certain inflation, or some other metric that will indicate the fall is 1-2 years out?

Everyone believing total collapse is coming in a few years has been wrong from 1980 to near-present ... our track record is almost that of climate doomsayers. When do we take a hard look at the data, and revise the hypothesis, vs saying 'it'll be a few more years'?

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just sharing: https://www.singlelunch.com/2022/01/09/an-anatomy-of-bitcoin-price-manipulation/

Along your ideas of institutional wiping out levered players

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great post - sometimes get lost in the weeds and forget what it's all about

thanks BTB

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Excellent break down. How should I view crypto in terms of, “how much do I need to ensure the future for my children”….is there a benchmark?

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I never did any finance or economics during any of my time in school. Now in my early 30s through the rabbit hole of Bitcoin 4 years ago I have learned more about economics and money. I've been stacking books and all the good information I can get. I've never been more hungry to learn about it all.

Any good books you or fellow jungle readers recommend?

Currently starting 'When Money Dies'. About the hyper inflation of Germany in the 1920s.

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Not have traded any NFT on OpenSea so I'm not eligible for the airdrop; might be still a good idea to buy a small chunk to allocate money reserved for microcaps bets? (net worth <100k)

It seems there is quite some enthusiasm on CT

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