One other incident of note was in the fall of 2019 when the repo market started to blow up. Seemed like the first major cracks in the system were showing and covid was a great excuse to cover up the decades of bad monetary policy
Obvious to me and most readers here but unfortunately sounds like crazy gibberish to most folks who get high-fructose information from 30 min of half-digested "evening news" telling you *how* to feel about something.
Everyone do yourself a favor and learn how to *think*. That means reading financial data (doesn't lie) and trying to figure out the story they portray. Bull is talented at this, hence why he's so right on with macro 80%+ of the time.
Meanwhile, watch out for the Midterm elections as a distraction. Republicans should win both houses big and Biden will effectively be a lame duck with no power. Right will celebrate, left will be furious, but what will actually get done?
Will we be in an stagflationary recession by that point? Regardless of who wins the election, what does that lead to...? BFF J-Pow da real prez now and even he can't control energy prices. Hmmm...
Moved from NYC to Miami last year, the same apartment which I got last year is $800 more expensive now. The average STUDIO in Brickell is about $3,000 per month in rent. Before the pandemic, you could get the same studio for $1,800.
I am afraid that at this point, even Texas and Florida are living on borrowed time. It used to be that back in the day, old more sane New Yorkers flooded to Florida and they were usually from Long Island or Upstate. Now, every spoiled woke normie brat is flooding to South Florida on Daddy's money and then crying that it is not woke like NYC.
I feel like Florida right now feels like California in the 70s or 80s. It is literally a bad governor or two away from turning into the California of modern day and it can easily happen in less than a decade. With the amount of techies, woke warriors, and virtue signaling yankees on daddy's money flooding in, do not expect it to stay the way it is for long.
One thing more- we can at least be happy to be in US. Everywhere else (except maybe Russia ironically) is in way worse situation. Europe is absolutely fucked.
You can’t go on stage and say no one needs the vaccine. You also can’t go on stage and say the virus is not as deadly as we thought. Both of those admit incompetence so better to be *right* on something big and major (Russia attacking Ukraine) to gain credibility while brushing the prior decisions under the rug. Can’t be an admission of bad decisions if no one remembers. - Just perfect analysis.!
If you can't see this is by design , I don't know what will show you.
Also note the Covid vaccine ID will be instrumental to future digital IDs / linked to digital CBDCs. They are just prepping for this.
Ed Dowd has some good content (only on Gettr after Twatter banned the dude) about all this.
As more time goes on, more people will (and are) realize that COVID is actually just a population control / placation mechanism because no governments are willing to admit that the system is FUBAR and may collapse. Look at China and its harsh lockdowns in Shanghai, one of the most economically productive regions - completely about control as they were likely trying to reduce demand / inflation / resource scarcity of some sort.
COVID also proved to the govts that 90%+ of their populations are sheep and once the next plandemic rolls around they will happily accept whatever imprisonment...errm lockdowns they impose and take more poison jabs up the ass if their daddy govt forces them to.
Great summary, it’s scary how many don’t already know this. Stagflation seems inevitable. Don’t see how they can fix the energy problem quickly since they haven’t even started to try. Diesel rules everything around me (DREAM lol). All they can do is kill consumers w/interest rate hikes.
Bull have you done a post on all the essentials you would buy for prepping?
So far, I’ve got a couple years worth soap, toothbrush, toilet paper, etc. About a years worth of canned goods. Several gallons of water and a freezer full of ground beef. Just wondering you could expound on this topic.
Bull, do you agree with Burry that major retailers (Target, Walmart, Best Buy, etc.) face a major inventory GLUT and this will cause a "bullwhip effect" (deflation in consumer products)?
What are the implications even though headline inflation (food, energy, etc.) will continue to rise due to shortages?
And do we see lots of housing sales / foreclosures if recession = layoffs = levered up folks can't make their monthly payments? There goes middle class's main store of wealth...
Spot on spot on spot as usual. Hopefully scares normies the hell out of here...you can still find comments discussing why Roe will make dems win the midterms and how Europe is better than America bc of mass shootings and bla bla bla bla
Hopefully all posts become paid and price tag on substack skyrockets bc of inflation
If Europe puts caps on Russian oil price near the low cost of production. How much could be shipped to a non Euro 3rd party before going back out at market price?
For example:
🛢Oil $120
🛢Russia cost $60
🛢3rd party buys for $100 sells for $120
Seems easy to send oil east or south before sending it west...Or at a bare minimum allow non-Euro countries to buy slightly discounted oil ($110 vs $120 market price). There is some amount of fungible-ness with oil right?
Now add in the unintended consequence of this driving the overall market price of oil up...Now if in 3 months oil is $150 cuz of new sanctions... Russia sells for $130 which is >$120 market price they would have got without sanctions
But politicians can point to doing something and pootin to hide the ever increasing price of energy that is likely largely due to poor policy decisions
One other incident of note was in the fall of 2019 when the repo market started to blow up. Seemed like the first major cracks in the system were showing and covid was a great excuse to cover up the decades of bad monetary policy
Obvious to me and most readers here but unfortunately sounds like crazy gibberish to most folks who get high-fructose information from 30 min of half-digested "evening news" telling you *how* to feel about something.
Everyone do yourself a favor and learn how to *think*. That means reading financial data (doesn't lie) and trying to figure out the story they portray. Bull is talented at this, hence why he's so right on with macro 80%+ of the time.
Meanwhile, watch out for the Midterm elections as a distraction. Republicans should win both houses big and Biden will effectively be a lame duck with no power. Right will celebrate, left will be furious, but what will actually get done?
Will we be in an stagflationary recession by that point? Regardless of who wins the election, what does that lead to...? BFF J-Pow da real prez now and even he can't control energy prices. Hmmm...
Stuck in my head while reading: “I was farming yfi while you were rioting for blm.” -defigod
Moved from NYC to Miami last year, the same apartment which I got last year is $800 more expensive now. The average STUDIO in Brickell is about $3,000 per month in rent. Before the pandemic, you could get the same studio for $1,800.
I am afraid that at this point, even Texas and Florida are living on borrowed time. It used to be that back in the day, old more sane New Yorkers flooded to Florida and they were usually from Long Island or Upstate. Now, every spoiled woke normie brat is flooding to South Florida on Daddy's money and then crying that it is not woke like NYC.
I feel like Florida right now feels like California in the 70s or 80s. It is literally a bad governor or two away from turning into the California of modern day and it can easily happen in less than a decade. With the amount of techies, woke warriors, and virtue signaling yankees on daddy's money flooding in, do not expect it to stay the way it is for long.
One thing more- we can at least be happy to be in US. Everywhere else (except maybe Russia ironically) is in way worse situation. Europe is absolutely fucked.
Every time I read the stack I feel like I’m way ahead of the crowd. And that’s because I am thanks to you guys.
You can’t go on stage and say no one needs the vaccine. You also can’t go on stage and say the virus is not as deadly as we thought. Both of those admit incompetence so better to be *right* on something big and major (Russia attacking Ukraine) to gain credibility while brushing the prior decisions under the rug. Can’t be an admission of bad decisions if no one remembers. - Just perfect analysis.!
If you can't see this is by design , I don't know what will show you.
Also note the Covid vaccine ID will be instrumental to future digital IDs / linked to digital CBDCs. They are just prepping for this.
Ed Dowd has some good content (only on Gettr after Twatter banned the dude) about all this.
As more time goes on, more people will (and are) realize that COVID is actually just a population control / placation mechanism because no governments are willing to admit that the system is FUBAR and may collapse. Look at China and its harsh lockdowns in Shanghai, one of the most economically productive regions - completely about control as they were likely trying to reduce demand / inflation / resource scarcity of some sort.
COVID also proved to the govts that 90%+ of their populations are sheep and once the next plandemic rolls around they will happily accept whatever imprisonment...errm lockdowns they impose and take more poison jabs up the ass if their daddy govt forces them to.
This is very good. As a companion, everyone should be familiar with Michael Chrichton’s classic, Why Speculate?
http://web.archive.org/web/20070714204136/http://www.michaelcrichton.net/speech-whyspeculate.html
Great summary, it’s scary how many don’t already know this. Stagflation seems inevitable. Don’t see how they can fix the energy problem quickly since they haven’t even started to try. Diesel rules everything around me (DREAM lol). All they can do is kill consumers w/interest rate hikes.
Bull have you done a post on all the essentials you would buy for prepping?
So far, I’ve got a couple years worth soap, toothbrush, toilet paper, etc. About a years worth of canned goods. Several gallons of water and a freezer full of ground beef. Just wondering you could expound on this topic.
Never let a good crisis go to waste!
Bull, do you agree with Burry that major retailers (Target, Walmart, Best Buy, etc.) face a major inventory GLUT and this will cause a "bullwhip effect" (deflation in consumer products)?
What are the implications even though headline inflation (food, energy, etc.) will continue to rise due to shortages?
And do we see lots of housing sales / foreclosures if recession = layoffs = levered up folks can't make their monthly payments? There goes middle class's main store of wealth...
Spot on spot on spot as usual. Hopefully scares normies the hell out of here...you can still find comments discussing why Roe will make dems win the midterms and how Europe is better than America bc of mass shootings and bla bla bla bla
Hopefully all posts become paid and price tag on substack skyrockets bc of inflation
Also - Watch this cap on Russian Oil prices.
If Europe puts caps on Russian oil price near the low cost of production. How much could be shipped to a non Euro 3rd party before going back out at market price?
For example:
🛢Oil $120
🛢Russia cost $60
🛢3rd party buys for $100 sells for $120
Seems easy to send oil east or south before sending it west...Or at a bare minimum allow non-Euro countries to buy slightly discounted oil ($110 vs $120 market price). There is some amount of fungible-ness with oil right?
Now add in the unintended consequence of this driving the overall market price of oil up...Now if in 3 months oil is $150 cuz of new sanctions... Russia sells for $130 which is >$120 market price they would have got without sanctions
But politicians can point to doing something and pootin to hide the ever increasing price of energy that is likely largely due to poor policy decisions
Post War II Crisis
1. US come off gold standard, Inflation
Solution diplomacy Kissinger petrodollar
GOV that was a lot of work
2. S&L crisis, 8k+ banks fail, GOV holding the bag on ridiculous amounts of RE
Solution sell RE to first hedge funds
GOV that sucked
3. 2001 Tech Crash/Recession
Solution drop Rate below 2%
GOV felt better, less work, less pain
Repeat #3 for future crisis...