Autist note - the fed puts out the SEP (statement of economic projections) this next meeting. The debate over “higher” has contracted a lot but the SEP could shed some light on the debate over “longer” which has been totally warped this past week and a half. The market had been pricing in 0 cuts by December 2023 last Wednesday, with that number currently at 3-4 cuts after the bank failures. The fed definitely doesn’t want that to be the expectation. I think BTB is right about 25bps at this next meeting, then I think they’ll do some sort of hawkish pause where they keep the level flat but talk some pain into the expectations for the back half of the year.
Any thoughts on the German/EU banks? Business‘ money is deposited mostly in Sparkassen (German savings bank) and private cash in Swiss and Liechtenstein banks... too big to fail US banks‘ presence ist fairly limited and they are harder to access
This may have already been covered so apologies if it has, also likely a dumb question for you guys so my bad there as well. I understand there are multiple factors that impact the interest rate on bonds, but couldn't the fed just manipulate them down, therefore they would attempt to both raise rates, bail out the banks and also put negative pressure on bond rates and enjoy their clown world as long as they can?
Very well explained
Can I get those stickers somehow? I will pay but want to aggressively put them everywhere.
Thanks BTB. I always appreciate that dumbed down explanations.
just goes to show if you meme hard enough it can come true
Autist note - the fed puts out the SEP (statement of economic projections) this next meeting. The debate over “higher” has contracted a lot but the SEP could shed some light on the debate over “longer” which has been totally warped this past week and a half. The market had been pricing in 0 cuts by December 2023 last Wednesday, with that number currently at 3-4 cuts after the bank failures. The fed definitely doesn’t want that to be the expectation. I think BTB is right about 25bps at this next meeting, then I think they’ll do some sort of hawkish pause where they keep the level flat but talk some pain into the expectations for the back half of the year.
Any thoughts on the German/EU banks? Business‘ money is deposited mostly in Sparkassen (German savings bank) and private cash in Swiss and Liechtenstein banks... too big to fail US banks‘ presence ist fairly limited and they are harder to access
This may have already been covered so apologies if it has, also likely a dumb question for you guys so my bad there as well. I understand there are multiple factors that impact the interest rate on bonds, but couldn't the fed just manipulate them down, therefore they would attempt to both raise rates, bail out the banks and also put negative pressure on bond rates and enjoy their clown world as long as they can?
Utter disaster and its looked that way for years.
What happens with Michael Klein and the US side?
When will the 20k be shown the door? Is this typically done shortly after announcement of the deal or once deal is closed? (12/31)